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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although experts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is projected to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June amid a dispute concerning his radical immigration proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to gain between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to lose seats, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division ensures that no single party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a vote of confidence in the house before taking office.